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Untouched? Part Two: evolution



We are now in the early 2000s, and vintage watch collecting is no longer a regional culture thing involving mainly a niche of Italian, British, German and Japanese aficionados, but a global phenomenon. The internet has revolutionized the communication world, and everyone has access to real time information: a slew of fresh watch collectors is avidly absorbing all there is to know about vintage watches at a pace 100fold what we experienced in the analog era. However, there is only so much that can be learned from back in the day and, while a new level of knowledge is being built thanks to the many new adepts, technological platforms and virtual online communities, the new watch collector is focusing on the little available information – mainly books with photos of watches with little to no explanation – to understand what is valuable and what isn’t, what to buy and what not to buy. This new way of looking at watches is the result of thousands needing a sort of “blue book” that would allow them to understand and evaluate what they’re looking at based on clear, arguable reference points. A myriad of information that’s growing rapidly online becomes their North Star. However, what makes a watch a piece of art as opposed to a piece of junk, simply goes beyond the fact that it has box and papers, it’s “tropical”, or it’s Tiffany retailed, sold to the Omani sultanate only if it says Asprey on the case back, has a Rolex oyster bracelet that comes with the 71N end pieces on steel or 71 on the gold: yes, all these things matter, but there is a lot more to it. Something that it is, in my view, virtually impossible to put in a pocket price guide.

And then, there is the money.

Watch dealers, aspiring vintage watch merchants and “collectors” who buy with the only purpose to resell, just like politicians, know all too well the power of greed and fear when it comes to steering a buyer’s decision one way or another. So, while the concept of “never polished” is slowly brewing into “never touched” over the span of about one and a half decades, the public goes through other phases: the “box and papers”, the “tropical” and the “new old stock”, not to mention the mirage of the prototype, that only a chosen few can be so lucky to buy.

In fact, for a number of years the more aficionados that joined the party, the more one key prerogative would drive sales. And that’s how we arrive to the era of the box and papers, when people who literally didn’t know the first thing about the – occasionally pricey – watch they were buying would first ask if it had “box and papers” and base their decision solely on that. Or, would pay unprecedented premiums for watches with a compromised dial – as opposed to those really rare ones that can truly be defined “tropical – ending up with something they will never be happy with and especially have a hard time reselling. Or, expecting to be buying “new old stock” watches – which is the definition given to used watches that look like new, but actually aren’t – and fairly so, having been around for half a century or more- believing they are actually unworn. Blinded the illusion of owning a priceless one-off, the only example released with a defect that makes it unique or a “prototype”, I have seen people spend stupid money on complete fabrications, as I have seen them do so on fake or freshly filled-in blank warranties, barely presentable watches sold as “new old stock”, destroyed dials presented as “tropical”. Mind you, even a watch with a dial literally ravaged by age and elements can have its charm and aware buyers deserve all my respect and appreciation: I am just saying, buy what you’re buying knowing what it is. In other words, I’ve seen people buying horrible – and expensive- watches because they were only focusing on that one prerequisite that the last online authority had preached about, rather than on the actual watch they were about to own.

Images from public domain.

The sales pitch they all bought into was systematically leveraged on greed: “trust me, pay this price and you will see your investment double sooner than you imagine”; or fear: “don’t buy that (actually great) watch from my competitor, it doesn’t have, as opposed to mine, box and papers, a tropical dial, a “new old stock” condition! You will lose all your money: buy mine, instead!”.

Please, don’t get me wrong: there are in fact watches that come to us with their very original box and booklets; that their dial has aged so nicely and evenly that can be listed under the category of “tropical”, which includes watches that are significantly aged, but in a way that’s so perfect as to make them even more desirable – and possibly valuable – than otherwise perfectly conserved examples; that are in a state of preservation that’s so outstanding as to deserve being considered practically still new, although they are not; that are, or have components, that were never released to the public because they never surpassed the prototype stage, but were indeed a product of that manufacturer and have ended up on the open market through secondary channels. These things are all real, and they matter: but you cannot look at any watch by any of these angles alone, ignoring a bunch of other ones including, and especially, whether the watch you are considering to buy actually looks great or not.

Many dealers exploit the avenues of opportunity offered by the illusion of knowledge created by data available online or word of mouth, misinformation that is quickly manipulated into malinformation, to score sales that maybe should never happen, more sales in general or, at best, as a means of self-promotion, in order to elevate oneself from a total nobody to a beacon of knowledge and fair dealing in the vintage watch community.

The latest focus on the idea that a watch should never have been polished after it left the factory for the first time to possibly rate as a top condition example has been adopted by some as their broadly publicized credo with the sole objective to sell the notion that they are as pure in their watch selection as they are in their hearts and souls: knowing exactly who I am referring to, I can assure you that, most often than not, both their watch selections and their hearts and souls are by a long shot not purer than those of the average person, which includes most of us.

Worthy of mention, are the cases of one such experts once publicly claiming, his chest puffed in pride of his own extraordinary integrity, that restoring the case of a particular watch, already ravaged by previous, gross and negligible re-polish jobs, would be against his highest principles: whereas evidently the underlying real message was: “look at me, I am so entrenched in this never-repolish principle, that I am willing to talk you into buying this watch as is, so already horribly repolished that only an idiot wouldn’t have it restored to its original conditions: where will you find a supplier more believable than me?”

And of another, who went on a whole tirade on how he had finally figured how to determine if the hands of a watch had ever been removed – a mandatory process in the performance of regular, highly recommended, mechanical service – the implied suggestion being that only a watch that had never been serviced – in the example given, accidentally, his own – would be worthy of the prized “never touched” title, which would make such watch multiple times more valuable – and costly – than any other one that would be, implicitly, not even worth owning at this point.

Clearly, a watch that has maintained its original aspect, to the point of appearing like new, is easily identifiable as an exceptional example, but so can a watch that has been roughed up by years of use, has been repolished at some point of its life, or has been masterfully restored. As much as top-notch preservation almost always reflects exceptional condition, it does not equate to imperfect pieces not possibly qualifying as exceptional just the same. If someone is insistingly offering you the angle that a watch is “new old stock” as the only qualifying prerogative to exceptionality, they are not being fair to the reality that that’s simply not true. Also, most often than not, that watch is, as well preserved as it may be, not “new old stock”, which literally means still unworn since it was manufactured. More likely, they’re trying to sell you a watch that is in an extraordinary state of preservation, if not just the appearance of that. Charging you an especially high premium, justified by the exceptionality of the rare find.

Folks, mint condition is great, but it doesn’t mean that’s the best money can buy: in fact, there are pieces in all sorts of conditions that can have more magic – and more value- than that. How to tell? Training your eye, interpreting auction results, thinking critically.

Buyer awareness – and knowledge -has grown over time, and the number of people who can independently discern the intrinsic value of what they are looking at has increased – and keeps increasing – significantly. Frankly, I wish even sharing thoughts of mine like I’m doing right now would help that. But we are still far from collectively sharing the full understanding of what makes a vintage watch great: I still get calls from people inquiring about a watch they clearly know very little about and ask if it has box and papers, if it’s untouched, if it’s tropical and so on, as if the answer yes to that only question could validate a purchase in the tens – or hundreds – of thousands of dollars. The very parameters that they believe would be the firewall against a bad investment and that are often not even a thing become, too often, exactly what turns them away from the timepiece of their life. I remember many occasions in which incredible, once-in-a-lifetime watches have been turned down for a simple matter of ignorance.

I have on my personal track record a guy who managed to make both mistakes at the same time, actually: he turned down what would have been the true opportunity of a lifetime even for the most seasoned vintage watch professional, to buy instead what was “just” an extraordinarily good looking watch. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but he wasn’t actually interested- in spite of his fluted, annoying, self-celebrating, self- grooming comments – in owning a great watch: instead, he was thinking it was a holy grail that would have sprouted for him a bunch of gold coins, just like Pinocchio’s money tree, with the only difference that he talked himself into burying his monies, no avail from the cat and the fox needed. That, of course, without asking the basic questions, based on the self-conviction that what he had learned online had made him so much smarter and knowledgeable than he was thanks to cutting his teeth for five hard, long years on his computer. He ended up literally foregoing a million dollars in profits initially, and most likely another million on the second deal. Cumulatively, a two-million dollar loss. Just your typical too clever by half aspiring apex predator, I guess. I will compliment him that, as opposed to the vast majority of the smart people I have had the privilege to meet in my career, this individual belongs to a unique class of intellectual midgets. Also, that he has enough money to think he’s rich, which means that, fortunately for him, this will not be the screw-up that will take him down. Maybe the next one will, who knows. Anyway, I might just tell you the whole story at a future date, we’ll see.

And this brings us another to plague of our times: after the internet experts in epidemiology, Middle Eastern politics, world peace, cryptocurrencies, now we have the internet vintage watch expert, who has learned everything there is to know about vintage watches online – or consults AI to make himself an expert on a particular watch – and applies those concepts to reality with, occasionally, dire consequences.

The same applies to the fact that watch restoration is now more and more acceptable after all, if used to bring back to life a timepiece otherwise lost forever. So, we better brace for what’s coming next, once everyone will be inculcated to the idea that a watch will necessarily have to be restored to be worth something. We are past the moment of the writings on the wall with regards to this next menace, something we are going to talk about in the next and last part of this essay, soon to drop right here on “My Take”.



Untouched? Part One: history

The latest concern of the novice collector is that the watch they are about to buy is “untouched”, or “unpolished”.

Every time I’m asked if a watch I am offering for sale is “never polished”, I can’t help but roll my eyes: the question itself tells me the person asking couldn’t tell the difference between an absolutely “virgin” example and another one badly polished multiple times to save his life. Assuming anyone at this point can tell if a watch looks great or awful, clearly the concern is that even if the watch looks great, it could have been polished at something me point of its life but it’s very hard to tell. Those who don’t ask include buyers who don’t care one way or another, those who can tell by themselves, therefore don’t need to ask, and those who think they can tell, but actually have no idea.

So, if a particular watch looks 100% great under every perspective, why does it matter if it was ever polished, repaired, or restored at all? The short answer is money: theoretically, an “untouched” watch is worth more money.

But so does a restored piece, as long as it’s impossible to see, and there is no public history to show to prove that it was. So, wait: untouched mint and restored are worth the same, only as long as we don’t know?

The explanation lies in the history of the concept, and the way it has been weaponized by dealers either to maximize profits or as an efficacious sales pitch at large. Let’s dive in.

There have been times when I had to beg my payer to keep the watch’s case in its preserved conditions, and others when I chose to sell to a lower bidder because the highest one would require that I’ve the case polished.

The better and more important the watch, the more we would want to have it re-polished before presenting it to our clients. All watchmakers – as well as factory service centers – would make sure to include case re-polishing as part of a routine overhaul or repair.

The number of museum pieces I have seen that had been uselessly polished – and ruined forever – in the service center of the very manufacturers who had sold them in the first place is painfully staggering.

I will never forget a Rolex moon phase ref 8171 I sold to a beginner collector back in 1996 as the head – and only member of – the watch department of a minor auction house in Rome, Italy. The watch came out of the family of the first owner in need of a mechanical overhaul in order to work, probably the reason why it had remained virtually unworn for almost half a century.

After the adjudication, the client asked me for a recommendation as to where have it serviced. I knew that Rolex would have the case refinished in a way that only to my own – and those of a few others’ – opinion would be nothing short of destroying a watch that was already beyond perfect.

I introduced him to one Silvano Cutelli, a local watchmaker with a stellar reputation for his high professional standards, who also worked as an external service center for one of the city’s most historic Rolex ADs, Bedetti.

He was twice as expensive as most others, but his reputation justified it: I myself would not turn to him for work in my early years, as his services were too expensive for my budget.

When the new owner came back to me with the watch freshly serviced, a bit shocked for having paid about 10% of the value of the watch just for service – scaled up to today’s values it would be $ 25,000 for an overhaul, but clearly a lot less then – I almost passed out.

Silvano (or likely his son, in charge of that part of the process) had completely re-polished a flawless first patina case, not only changing forever its appearance, but also completely erasing the coronet and serial number that were engraved on the outside of the case back as per factory specifications…

To his defense, I’ll stipulate that that was just the way things were done in the industry. Any imperfection on the case of a watch, be it a ding, a dent or a scratch, was dealt with a resolute brushing under the wheel of a polishing machine, a tool generally present in every jeweler’s workshop and watchmaker alike.

People who would effectively have the skills to do any real case work did exist, but were considered a last resort solution to address structural issues that could not be resolved by a simple polishing, such as holes, cracks, bent lungs broken hinges.

I want to remember, as historical tribute to my hometown, a tiny shop in Via delle Tre Cannelle, walking distance from the Trevi Fountain in the heart of old town Rome: three generations of the same family worked in that shop, starting in the early 1900s.

The last one of them, whose father had at one point moved to Buenos Aires and where he himself was born, eventually moved back to Argentina.

Notably, his son continued in his footsteps becoming the first watch case restoration specialist of international fame: his work is legendary, and some of the most important vintage pieces that broke records in watch auctions across the globe had discretely gone through his expert hands before even surfacing the market. He still works on the same lathe his great grandfather had bought in Milano, Italy back in 1911.

Soon enough the most expert dealers and collectors started showing a special appreciation for untouched examples across the board.

When one popped up, it would likely be a candidate for their personal collection, since making the average buyer understand that that condition justified a higher asking price was still a real challenge: most of them couldn’t care less and prioritized price over condition, unable to appreciate the difference.

The tide started turning around the early 2000s, when the demand of vintage pieces started growing exponentially, inventory started to become scarce and we as dealers began the run to dig out watches sold in the past to our first customers.

Asian collectors showed interest exclusively for prime condition examples – to levels at times of quasi-insanity – but would pay prices we had never even dreamed of. At the peak of this phase, exceptional examples could fetch record prices, imperfect ones just wouldn’t sell if not for a tiny fraction if at all.

The first generation of collectors learned a very painful lesson of how their selection criteria should have not put price above all other factors, as well as they were rewarded with surprising results selling something they – and the dealers they bought them from – had no clue was a true, one in a thousand, rare gem.

The era of the “untouched example” had begun.

 

Is the Vintage Watch Market Plummeting and why I Welcome That

The recent auction results seem to have raised concerns around dealers and collectors alike, showing a downward trend of trading prices for the first time in about thirty years.

At the same time, sales appear to be slower than what we had gotten used to and the demand for the models that represented the everyday bread and butter of the market has definitely lost a little steam. It’s worth mentioning right off the bat that this phenomenon affects mainly watches that are relatively common stock. The culture of watchmaking has grown to a point where we now know what our Michelangelos, Da Vincis and Picassos are: I wouldn’t expect to ever find those watches pass unnoticed in a minor auction and sell for nothing.

I have received a few calls in the past weeks from other watch guys – both professional and non – interested in knowing what I thought about this. One asked, more specifically, “we all know the market for new and contemporary watches has taken a dive and that makes sense, but now vintage too?” Well, I am surely not an economist and probably not even the best informed in all things money, but have been around this block for a while and have witnessed firsthand the birth, the first demise, the steady growth and finally the explosion of our market, so I am confident I can offer an educated opinion those of you who may have similar questions.

First of all, a little history.

The vintage watch market started building momentum in the early eighties, showing a slow but consistent growth in demand for vintage and pre-owned timepieces and kept growing steadily for a decade, give or take. Until then, watches were generally regarded as consumers’ goods, and the idea that after having been used and surpassed by new designs, models and technology a watch wouldn’t hold any particular economic value – in spite of it possibly initial high price – was broadly accepted. Not that different from luxury automobiles, if you think of it: the average driver of a top-of-the-line Range Rover, Bentley, Mercedes or what have you, will gladly spend a couple of hundred grand on his dream car, lose half of his money over a three-year period, factor that in and merrily walk into a dealership to repeat the experience all over again. But in today’s world, tell that same guy that his watch hasn’t made him any profit or, worse yet, lost some of its initial value, and he’ll lose his fucking mind.

 

But how did we get here? You will find this story familiar. Across the eighties the market belonged to little more than a handful of dealers who found themselves in the right place at the right time: the demand for high-end watches growing fast, with an apparently endless supply from original owners – or their heirs – who had no clue that the watches they were getting rid of were passing hands for multiple folds their selling price, again and again.

The most successful of these dealers coalesced in a sort of cast that showed very little interest in opening up to younger generations or even just learn much more than the little they already did about watches and had so far sufficed to make them very wealthy.

To be fair, this doesn’t apply to all of them, but a good majority for sure. Their appearance of prestige and wealth also conferred them an aura of authority and credibility that made for us rookies very hard to make a name for ourselves. In the meantime, with the last rush of increasing prices, everybody had turned into a watch dealer: the barista at the coffee shop had a deal on two-tone subs, the optician around the corner was the go-to guy if you had a Daytona to sell.

Around 1990, however, things changed rapidly.

The market’s fast rise of the preceding last few years that had brought a steel vintage submariner from $ 1,000 to $ 5,000 and a Patek Philippe 1518 from $ 15,000 to $ 150,000 (today a good example brings $ 1M), started giving signs of collapse, reminiscent of the bursting of a speculative bubble. To my surprise, some of the dealers I was looking up to started offering some of their most coveted timepieces for two thirds of their lower estimate just a few weeks ahead, willing to take a loss on a single watch greater than my then meek entire working capital. I couldn’t fathom why: I was in the in the game to maybe make the dream of owning myself one of those watches come true some day and these guys, who could effortlessly afford to keep them, were getting rid of them! I was turning pro just when the pros were getting the hell out as fast as they possibly could. The market was flooded with watches that just a few weeks before were so much more expensive, their prices going up by the week.

 

The years that followed were, contrarily to my darkest fears – I had left my secure job to become a watch dealer! – the best I can remember. The market’s reset created opportunities of all kinds. I remember starting off with buying a steel Vacheron & Constantin chronograph from the late forties for about $ 6,000 as opposed to the $ 18,000 the same dealer had charged a few months before. I didn’t make much money on it, but having access to next level watches meant not only the coming true of my wildest dreams, but also access to next level clients.

From 1990 to 2010 prices kept growing again slowly, but reasonably and steadily, and so did a whole new generation of dealers and collectors. Around the end of that run, however, the world started witnessing what I believe must be the biggest boom the watch industry has ever seen.

Mainly thanks to the market that we had created, if you ask me: the big manufacturers saw their industry have a new spring after we had managed to revolutionize the culture of watches, transforming them from a decadent manifestation of wealth, luxury and prestige into an unprecedented, educated appreciation of the art of watchmaking and watch design. Along with that, however, also came the illusion that any high-end watch would turn into a commodity that would never fail to financially reward every “investor” as opposed to “end user”. A trading game, where the smartest of us couldn’t fail to succeed: and in an upswing trajectory market, everybody is a genius.

Sadly, “this watch will be worth a lot more money before you know it” became the most popular selling pitch you’ll hear from a dealer. Nothing delivers the desired reaction from people better than telling them what they want to hear and, soon enough, our world of vintage watches started becoming crowded with people who were in for the gain rather than the experience. And the bigger the game, the bigger the money, as prices were driven up, especially at the price range where the majority of buyers could afford to play. These are the people who realize they are not really into watches, after all, when the passion starts coming with a cost rather than a profit.

It’s just history that repeats itself: to quote William Faulkner, “The past is never dead. It’s not even past.”

I come from a place where vintage watch buyers – be them one timers or true collectors – used to buy their watch because they wanted to own it, enjoy the – unthinkable to so many – privilege of living an experience that was important to them, in the first place: and if that came with a gain, better yet. Today, things apparently work the exact opposite way. I know this is going to make me sound like an old fart, but I feel as though our world has been hijacked at some point, and we have been taken places we didn’t necessarily want to go.

Look, I don’t necessarily want to demonize speculators. Every market in rapid ascent will attract investors wanting to get on board to take advantage of the momentum. I am not expressing any judgment of ethical or moral nature: the money game intersects with all kinds of worlds and that’s that. It should not in the case of health care, education and politics if you ask me, but at the end of the day that’s just the way it is. And I am not even saying that these people are intentionally acting in ways that are detrimental to our market and community: in fact, I could tell you any number of stories where prominent members of this community have deliberately acted in ways that hurt literally everybody in the name of personal profit, to boost their own ego, or both. I am just pointing out their role in driving up the market sometimes to levels that don’t make any sense, like brand new watches retailing $ 50,000 traded at $ 200,000 on the open market, or classic pieces raked on the market in multiple examples to create offer scarcity and then resold when prices were much higher: we have to thank those guys for that. But it’s also true that the phenomenon brought some collateral benefits to the market as well, such as drawing the attention of global public and media, causing the passion we share and the culture of vintage watches to spread across all borders. And I will also add that this market was in fact financially underrated – in part I believe it still is, but this is a different conversation – and the speculation game has in some cases help align some prices to actual value. In fact, do not confuse the ordinary production watches selling for stellar prices with the important vintage pieces that are now selling for millions. These are two different markets: the first one is pushed up by speculation, the latter one is only making its way to a space of public recognition. Nobody is cornering the market of double crown world time Pateks.

When, however, for whatever reason – in this case geopolitical instability, uncertain economies and, especially, a market exploited beyond its intrinsic value (at least for now) – the market’s growth shows a tendency to fade, many buyers who joined for fun and curiosity realize they were not really in for the unique, extraordinary experience of being part of this culture as much as for the illusion only, or flat-out the monetary gain. Failing to meet these expectations they start selling, or stop buying at best. Which, in a market that’s catching its breath, is the perfect recipe for a deflation. And here we are, as expected.

Today’s world is certainly not that of thirty-five years ago, but we can all imagine what the consequences of an excessive offer to a diminished demand are likely to be.

It’s worth noting, however, that the last gold rush has not attracted only short-term speculators and imprudent investors, but also an incredible number of new – often younger – passionate aspiring collectors and dealers: and with them, a more deeply rooted culture of watches in general and vintage in particular, a more sophisticated knowledge of the art and industry’s intimate details with a new perspective for the appreciation of brands, models and styles.

Am I worried of what’s coming? Well, I certainly should be: like many of us whose livelihood depends on the vintage watch market, I worked my dream job for decades, owned some of the most extraordinary timepieces ever made and experienced a lifestyle like few others but, truth be told, I can’t really say I have put away any money: unlike many of my clients who are evidently smarter than me, all I saved over a lifetime in the game is a decent number of good watches, maybe a few very good ones.

This means that in a market’s crisis all I worked for my whole life could almost instantly lose 20, 30, maybe even 50%. But I know from experience that it’s only a matter of time before some of these watches, maybe all, maybe a few, will regain all they may have lost and then some. Which ones? As much as I like to think I should be able to tell, only the new trends and perspectives brought in by the latest and future generations of watch aficionados will set the parameters to make that determination. This is the time when the rats leave the ship fearing it’s about to sink, and the air will finally become more breathable: the tighter market conditions will make things a little harder, to the point that those who have not come to the hobby with a passionate heart will go looking for easier opportunities elsewhere.

Am I even disappointed? Do I wish I had sold that or the other particular watch when the market was more favorable? Maybe a little but, just to be clear, only because the liquidity would give me ammunition to keep buying the pieces I am drawn to, again and again, moving forward. This being said, I have never taken for granted that prices would only go up and I have always been ok with that. As I state – in a slightly provocatory title of this article – I somewhat welcome the moment. If what we fear is what’s actually going to happen, well, it’s not going be the end of anything good but the beginning of something better. I will quote my own website: “I never shopped for price and always strived to buy only the extraordinary. It’s a philosophy that has always paid back myself and my clients and, as far as I am concerned, the founding principle at the base of any collection that is meant to be a wise investment.”

I buy what I love and find extraordinary – if I can afford it – and regardless of its price, I will always be happy with it.

That is, in my vision, the wisest investment in watches, an experience we can gift ourself with to make the best of the only one life we have been gifted with. If that watch is worth more or less than what we paid will not make any difference for any of us soon enough, unfortunately. But if we feel joy looking at it, showing it to our friends or wearing it, it will be the wisest investment we have ever made. With my sincere condolences for those who miss out of this opportunity, seeing in the – sometimes fantastic – watches they have bought only the price instead of the value, fuming in rage if that’s gone down, instead of appreciating the privilege life has given them. But these considerations I will keep for a future story, if you will want to hear it.

Watchessentially

The Base of All My Decisions

For a change, I will not write about watch restoration and the ways in which this affects, mainly in the wrong way, both the value and the market of a vintage watch. I would like, instead, to debate the assessment process through which we could – or should, in my opinion – be able to rate such value on a percentage basis or a zero to ten scale. This is obviously my own personal method that is surely susceptible of improvement, but that is the base of all my decisions regarding the buying or selling of a vintage watch.

AN ARRAY OF ANALOGIES

BETWEEN THE COLLECTIBLE WATCH MARKET AND THAT OF VINTAGE AUTOMOBILE OR ANTIQUE PAINTINGS

You have certainly heard, especially with regards to watch restoration, an array of analogies between the collectible watch market and that of vintage automobiles or antique paintings, to mention the most common ones. There are, however, many other similar cases: from postage stamps to writing instruments, from antique silver to coins. In my opinion these are arguably categories that present some similarities to that of vintage watches, but are nonetheless quite different: in fact, all these different objects can be just as desirable, but for a different reason or, better said, a different combination of reasons. And, moreover, each of these categories reflect values determined by a combination of prerogatives that are unique to that very category: for a painting, its appearance is for sure more important than its state of preservation, for a post stamp it’s true the exact opposite; for an automobile functionality is a key factor, but for a silver samovar or a lantern, a detail of little importance.

Just as for any other category of rare and collectible objects, the evaluation criteria of a vintage timepiece include several elements, many of which in common with those of other categories, but still unique to that of vintage watches only: conversely, some other parameters, although applicable to different other objects, cannot be used to assess a vintage watch without doing some damage just like, at least in my opinion, it is actually happening. The elements that for me determine the value – both financial and “cultural-emotional” – of a vintage watch can be divided into two main categories: those of aesthetical nature and of technical-historical nature. My rating will be as much higher as the values within each of these categories are equally balanced, like the two plates of a scale bearing the exact same weight. The more aligned all the evaluation parameters, the more visible will be what I like to define as the “magic” of a given watch.

My rating will be as much higher as the values within each of these categories are equally balanced, like the two plates of a scale bearing the exact same weight.

Within the realm of the aesthetic perspective are, above all, the overall beauty and the visual impact of the watch: these are two elements that can actually prescind even from its preservation state or the absolute originality of its every component; the patina, or the whole visual effect given by the presence – or lack of – signs of aging; the preservation state, from the example untouched but totally destroyed, to the one that has been restored to perfection, from the one absolutely untouched and still like new, to others showing every shade in between; the combination model-color, like for example, a watch that has a particularly rare dial color and/or hands style, or in a particularly unusual metal for that model, like a steel and gold Patek Philippe chronograph.

On the other hand, belong to the technical-historical sphere all the elements that relate to the exact prerogatives of a given watch the day it left the factory. First of all, the originality of each component, that have to necessarily be – at least as far as there is any even minuscule visible difference – factory original; the consistency of each component, meaning that if not “born” with that very watch they be at least the exact same that was included in the original manufacturer’s design and plans; the period correct element, meaning that all components not only need being factory original, but also correct for the  watch’s production timeframe; the rarity of the timepiece as it relates to production numbers; its desirability and  availability from a demand/offer perspective; the presence of any original paperwork and accessories.

“PERFECT”

IS NOT ALWAYS PERFECT

Theoretically, on a percentage scale a watch in absolutely “like new” conditions should always be the benchmark for a 100% rating, but in my opinion that is not necessarily always the case. In fact, it is well possible that a watch that shows some aging or some wear may still score the highest possible rating when some of the elements other than condition make up for the flaws. By the same token, it is possible that a well restored example may be more valuable than another that was never “touched” but aged badly, or that an example with very visible marks of aging – a perfect example would be that of the “tropical” dials – may be more desirable than the same exact model in absolutely perfect conditions. The “perfect” watch is not always, necessarily, perfect.

The generalized need to unify all the evaluation criteria in one one-size-fits-all code easily applicable by collectors and professionals alike worldwide has reduced this complex process to something similar, to use an example that I find particularly fitting, to that of antique postage stamps: if these are absolutely unused, perfectly “centered”, with a mint gum as originally sold by the post office, their value is 100/100. But the moment one only of these parameters is off, their value falls dramatically to a fraction of the full rating. When this same method is applied to vintage watches – that very, very rarely arrive to us in truly unworn conditions – the consequence is that these “ideal” conditions are often the result of invisible restorations or small improvements, such as the replacement of the damage components with same original parts, but in better conditions: agreeably accepted by dealers, but not shared with their buyers, this seems to be the only way to keep sustainable a market otherwise too resourceless to satisfy the often unrealistic expectations of the demand.

TRUE EXPERIENCE SHALL NEVER HIDE

VERSUS OPPORTUNIST “EXPERTS”

This situation has also contributed to the growth, between dealers and collectors, of the category – non-existent until just a few years ago – of vintage watch experts and consultants, a new profession that allows to profit from this market without paying the dues, finding or investing significant funds, exposing oneself to costly errors, scams, thefts or robberies. The experience matured by the “OGs” during the first decades of this experience is today available online for free: all one needs, is the time to study the available material – or at least enough of it to know a bit more than the next guy does – online, combined with some self-promotion skills, to be an “expert” who can charge for his services more than he could make buying and selling the same watches for which the consulting is offered. And, more often than not, without having ever owned one, or even a similar one, himself. Obviously, I do not have a high opinion of the category, but do acknowledge that whereas it does include a decent number of totally incompetent opportunists and a handful of unhinged haters, it also counts a few extremely educated individuals who, in my opinion, could help with their same work the future of this market rather than its demise. This is something that I promise to get into detail sometimes in the near future.

MONEY OR PRIDE

DEFINING AN OBJECT WITH CULTURAL ATTRIBUTES

These are, for the most part, more or less informed archivists who excel in comparing all the data available online and/or the equivalent of laboratory technicians, perfectly able to spot an unknown or undisclosed restoration, but apparently unprepared to understand its value or to contextualize it into a true complete evaluation of the example at hand; to attribute monetary values relying on statistical data based on auction results, but unable to suggest any other value than previously attributed to a similar watch by a market precedent; and, especially and unfortunately, perfectly able to leverage on their clients’ fear of losing and desire for gain – both in terms of money or pride – to consolidate a method that grants their industry growing prosperity at the expense of the emotional, esoteric, stylistic and exquisitely aesthetical elements that have determined the very birth of this passion and market as we have learned to love it since its beginnings in the early 1980s. Deprived of its emotional content, that in so many ways make the way we perceive a vintage watch similar to that of a work of art, its unique prerogative to become part of its owner’s personality so similar – at least for most men – to that of some automobiles or motorcycles defining an object with cultural attributes absolutely unique to its own category, the incredibly rich world of vintage watches is on the brinks of following the fate of that of postage stamps and collectible coins.

 

Assessing the Magic

Today I will not write about watch restoration and the ways in which this affects – mainly in the wrong way – both the value and the market of a vintage watch. I would like, instead, to debate the assessment process through which we could – or should, in my opinion – be able to rate such value on a percentage basis or a zero to ten scale. This is obviously my own personal method that is surely susceptible of improvement, but that is the base of all my decisions regarding the buying or selling of a vintage watch.

Alessandro Ciani portraid in Los Angeles.

You have certainly heard (regarding watch restoration), an array of analogies between the collectible watch market and that of vintage automobiles or old paintings, to mention the most common ones. There are, however, many other similar cases: from postage stamps to writing instruments, from antique silver to coins. These are arguably categories that present some similarities to that of vintage watches, but are nonetheless quite different: in fact, all these different objects can be just as desirable yet for a different reason or, better said, a different combination of reasons. And, moreover, each of these categories reflect values determined by prerogatives that are unique to that very category: for a painting, its appearance is for sure more important than its state of preservation, for a post stamp it’s true the exact opposite; for an automobile functionality is key factor, but for a silver samovar or a lantern a detail of little importance.

Rolex Datejust “Tog” Ref.6609 in gold 18k with alpha hands.
Rolex Datejust “Tog” Ref.6609 in gold 18k with alpha hands.

Just as for any other category of rare and collectible objects, the evaluation criteria of a vintage timepiece include several elements, many of which in common with those of other categories but still unique to that of vintage watches only: conversely, some parameters – albeit also applicable to different objects – cannot be used to assess a vintage watch without doing some damage just like it is actually happening… at least in my opinion.

The elements that for me determine the value – both financial and “cultural-emotional” – of a vintage watch can be divided in two main categories: those of aesthetical nature and of technical-historical nature. My rating will be as much higher as the values within each of these categories are equally balanced, like the two plates of a scale bearing the exact same weight.

The more aligned all the evaluation parameters, the more visible will be what I like to define as the “magic” of a given watch.

Within the realm of the aesthetic perspective are, above all, the overall beauty and the visual impact of the watch: these are two elements that can actually prescind even from its preservation state or the absolute originality of its every component; the patina or the whole visual effect given by the presence – or lack of – signs of aging; the preservation state, from the example untouched but totally destroyed, to the one that has been restored to perfection, from the one absolutely untouched and still like new to others showing every shade in between; the combination model-color, like for example a watch that has a particularly rare dial color and/or hands style or in a particularly unusual metal for that model, like a steel and gold Patek Philippe chronograph.

TECHNICAL DETAILS FOR COLLECTORS

THE MAGIC IS MADE OUT OF TINY ELEMENTS

Rare Patek Philippe “Calatrava” Ref.570 in steel.
Rare Patek Philippe “Calatrava” Ref.570 in steel.

On the other hand, belong to the technical-historical sphere all the elements that relate to the exact prerogatives of a given watch the day it left its original manufacturer. First of all, the originality of each component, that have to necessarily be – at least as far as there is any even minuscule visible difference – factory original; the consistency of each component, meaning that if not “born” with that very watch they must be at least the exact same items included in the original manufacturer’s design and plans; the period correct element, meaning that all components are not only factory original but also correct for the watch’s production timeframe; the rarity of the timepiece as it relates to production numbers; its desirability and availability from a demand/offer perspective; the presence of any original paperwork and accessories.

Patek Philippe in rose gold Ref.1463 sold in caracas by “serpico Y laino”.
Patek Philippe in rose gold Ref.1463 sold in caracas by “serpico Y laino”.

DOES THE “PERFECT WATCH” EXIST ?

EVERYTHING IS PERSONAL

Theoretically, on a percentage scale a watch in absolutely “like new” conditions should always be the benchmark for a 100% rating, but that is not necessarily always the case. In fact, it is well possible that a watch that shows some aging or some wear may still score the highest possible rating when some of the elements other than condition make up for the flaws. By the same token, it is possible that a well restored example may be more valuable than another that was never “touched” but aged badly, or that a specimen with very visible marks of aging – a perfect example would be that of the “tropical” dials – may be more desirable than the same exact model in absolutely perfect conditions. The “perfect” watch is not always, necessarily, perfect.

DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE TO STANDARDIZE?

WATCHES AREN’T LIKE POSTAGE STAMPS

The generalized need to unify all the evaluation criteria in a one-size-fits-all code easily applicable by collectors and professionals alike worldwide has reduced this complex process to something similar – to use an example that I find particularly fitting – to that of antique postage stamps: if these are absolutely unused, perfectly “centered”, with a mint gum as originally sold by the post office their value is 100/100. But the moment only one of these parameters is off, their value falls dramatically to a fraction of the full value. When this same method is applied to vintage watches – that very rarely arrive to us as truly unworn – the consequence is that these “ideal” conditions are often the result of invisible restorations or small improvements, such as the replacement of the damage components with same original parts but in better conditions: agreeably accepted by dealers but not shared with their buyers, this seems to be the only way to keep sustainable a market otherwise too resourceless to satisfy the often unrealistic expectations of the demand.

Patek Philippe (Left a Ref.1463 “Tasti Tondi”, strap by attila aszodi) is considered the pure expression of the “golden age” but Vacheron Constantin is pretty much there too.
Patek Philippe (Left a Ref.1463 “Tasti Tondi”, strap by attila aszodi) is considered the pure expression of the “golden age” but Vacheron Constantin is pretty much there too.

THE ONLINE FLATTENED THE VALUE OF EXPERIENCE

WEB SEARCHING ISN’T LIKE TOUCHING AND WATCHING A PIÉCE

This situation has also contributed to the growth of the category – non-existent until just a few years ago – of vintage watch experts and consultants, a new profession that allows to profit from this market without paying the dues, finding or investing significant funds, exposing oneself to costly errors, scams, thefts or robberies. The experience matured by the “OGs” during the first decades of this market is today available online for free: all one needs is the time to study the material available (or at least enough of it to know a bit more than the next guy does) combined with some self-promotion skills, to be an “expert” who can charge for his services more than he could make buying and selling the same watch for which the consulting is offered. And, more often than not, without having ever owned one, or even a similar one himself!

Obviously, I do not have a high opinion of the category, but I do acknowledge that whereas it includes a decent number of totally incompetent opportunists it also counts a few extremely educated individuals who, in my opinion, could help with their same work the future of this market rather than its demise.

This is something that I promise to get into detail sometimes in the near future.

Two “pocket watches” - Vacheron Constantin (left) and Patek Philippe (right) - with design very appreciated even by “wrist watch” collectors.
Two “pocket watches” – Vacheron Constantin (left) and Patek Philippe (right) – with design very appreciated even by “wrist watch” collectors.

These newcomers are for the most part more or less informed archivists who excel in comparing all the data available online and/or the equivalent of laboratory technicians, perfectly able to spot an unknown or undisclosed restoration but apparently unprepared to understand its value or to contextualize it into a true, complete evaluation of the example at hand; to attribute monetary values relying on statistical data based on auction results, but unable to suggest any other value than previously attributed to a similar watch by a market precedent; and, especially and unfortunately, perfectly able to leverage on their clients’ fear of losing and desire for gain – both in terms of money and pride – to consolidate a method that grants their industry growing prosperity at the expense of the emotional, esoteric, stylistic and exquisitely aesthetical elements that have determined the very birth of this passion and market as we have learned to love it since its beginnings in the early 1980s.

THE DETRIMENT OF THE EMOTIONAL PART

TO APPRECIATE A VINTAGE OBJECT WE MUST FREE SPACE TO PERSONAL TASTE

The amazing Rolex Daytona
The amazing Rolex Daytona,Right A Ref.6240 “millerighe” pushers, tropical “paul newman” dial and the “Oyster sotto” (below) inscription: very, very rare.

Deprived of its emotional content, that in so many ways makes a vintage watch similar to that of a work of art, its prerogative to become part of its owner’s personality defining an object with cultural attributes absolutely unique – so similar, at least for most men to that of some automobiles or motorcycles – the incredibly rich world of vintage watches is on the brinks of following the fate of that of postage stamps and collectible coins. Alessandro Ciani / L.A. (Usa) / Feb.2022.

( A sample of codified information on watches / vrfm.io )
( A sample of codified information on watches / vrfm.io )

Download (PDF, 1.72MB)

My appreciation for the Jeep Wrangler Willys

Looking at the Jeep on my site, I could not fathom not understanding the beauty of its history. The appreciation for its history.

Back in November of 1940, the Jeep legend began. This would be the very early days of the second World War, one year before the United States entered. A small, four-wheel power prototype, the Willys “Quad”, turned into delivered to the US Army.

Jeep parked in front of mountains
My Jeep Willys parked right in front of rugged terrain. Perfect.

It featured the Willys “Go-Devil” engine, developed by way of Delmar “Barney” Roos. With 60 horsepower and one zero five foot-pounds of torque it not simplest surpassed the Army’s requirement, but dwarfed the Bantam’s 83 and Ford’s eighty five pound-feet of torque, it’s only competition for the army contract.

The Quad became the father of the MB, CJ series, and Wrangler. Willys refined the Quad and built 1,500 gadgets of the Willys MA model, lots of which had been used in WWII.

Jeep parked in front of cliff side
One of my passions.

From 1941 to 1945 Willys produced the MB model, the unique go-anywhere, do-anything vehicle, which came to be known by means of its nickname, “Jeep”.

Made famous during WWII, Willys produced over 300,000 MB vehicles. Jeeps were closely used by way of every division of the American navy, with a hundred and forty four Jeeps provided to every infantry regiment inside the U.S. Army.

Large numbers of Jeeps were shipped to the Allied Forces of Britain and Russia: nearly 30% of general Jeep production.

The MB advanced into the M-38 military model, which featured a water-proof ignition device and was constructed from 1950 to 1951 in particular for use in the course of the Korean War.

During that conflict, Willy redesigned the M-38 and it became the M-38A1 with a longer wheelbase, softer ride, a extra powerful engine and a new, extra rounded body style.

In production via 1962, at some stage in that time Willys additionally produced the M-170, which turned into designed to be geared up with numerous different frame packages. One was a light troop carrier.

Because passengers were incredibly enclosed as compared to earlier models, the M-170 changed into extensively utilized as a area ambulance. Kaiser Willys Auto Supply has antique Jeep elements for all Willys military Jeep models.

To find out more and look at the details of my own Jeep Willys, please visit Garage Queens.

 

More of my appreciation for the Jeep Wrangler Willys

Did you know? The first ¼ ton, four-wheel power reconnaissance truck “pilot model” produced for the U.S. Army became built through the American Bantam Car Company of Butler, Pa.

It become added for testing to Camp Holabird in Baltimore on Sept. 23, 1940. Subsequent designs by way of Willys-Overland and Ford while vital were refinements on this authentic U.S. Army and American Bantam concept.

One of the maximum distinctive factors of the “jeep” layout is the flat slotted grill with incorporated headlights – for this – Ford gets the credit.

Ford’s Pilot Model GP- No. 1 “Pygmy” featured a flat grille with incorporated headlights introduced to the U.S. Army on Nov. 23, 1940.

From thirteen slots (1940), to 9 slots (1941), to seven slots (1945) – it truly is the history of the iconic “jeep” grille. The main motive Willys-Overland received the lion share of the production for the WWII “jeep” become its engine. Willys-Overland fortunately started reworking its L134 engine in 1938 with the appearance of Barney Roos as chief engineer. The result became the long lasting and powerful “Go-Devil” engine that became the coronary heart of the “jeep” for decades.

Willys-Overland produced as a minimum Pilot Model “Quads” in 1940.

After 1952 the road up of military “jeep” models included a Willys-Overland Pilot Model Quad (a ways left).

For more information on my own Jeep Willys, please send me a message!